Below The Beltway

It became official only a short while ago:

DENVER, Colorado (CNN) — Democrats Wednesday officially nominated Barack Obama to be their candidate for president.

Sen. Hillary Clinton asked to cut the roll call short saying, “With eyes firmly fixed on the future, and in the spirit of unity with the goal of victory, with faith in our party and our country, let’s declare together with one voice right here, right now that Barack Obama is our candidate and he will be our president,” she said.

Delegates then affirmed Obama as their choice with cheers.

Whatever else there is to be said about Barack Obama and regardless of how this election, or an Obama Presidency that might result from it, turns out, there is no denying that this is a unique moment in history. For the first time, a black man is the nominee of a major American political party and is potentially only 146 days away from taking the oath of office as President of the United States. Because of this, the 2008 Presidential Election will go down in the history books regardless of which candidate wins 68 days from now.

In and of itself, Barack Obama’s nomination is a significant event and I don’t think I’m alone in saying that it’s a good day to be an American.

This amusing story comes from Ballot Access News:

Section 192.031 of the Texas election code says that political parties must certify their presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the November ballot no later than 70 days before the general election. It says, “A political party is entitled to have the names of its nominees for president and vice-president placed on the ballot if before 5 p.m. of the 70th day before presidential election day, the party’s state chair signs and delivers to the secretary of state a written certification of the name’s of the party’s nominees for president and vice-president.”

This year, that deadline is August 26. UPDATE: At 2:30 pm Texas time, August 27, Kim Kizer of the Texas Secretary of State’s elections division says neither major party’s certification has been received in the Elections Division. The Executive Office of the Secretary of State refers all questions back to the Elections Division.

This year, neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party obeyed this law. See this link to the Secretary of State’s web page showing a blank for the Republicans and Democrats for president. It does show Bob Barr on the ballot; scroll down a little bit. If the Republicans have indeed filed, one wonders who they listed for vice-president, and why their filing is missing from the state web page.

Which should mean that, unless there is some exception they can take advantage of, neither John McCain nor Barack Obama would be on the ballot in Texas on Election Day.

The Barr Campaign has issued this press release:

Atlanta, GA - Bob Barr is slated to be the only presidential candidate on the ballot in Texas after Republicans and Democrats missed the Aug. 26 deadline to file in the state.

“Unless the state of Texas violates its own election laws, Congressman Barr will be the only presidential candidate on the ballot,” says Russell Verney, campaign manager for the Barr Campaign and the former campaign manager for Ross Perot. “Texas law makes no exceptions for missing deadlines.”

The Texas Secretary of State Web site shows only Bob Barr as the official candidate for president in Texas.

“We know all about deadlines,” says Verney. “We are up against them constantly in our fight to get on the ballot across the nation. When we miss deadlines, we get no second chances. This is a great example of how unreasonable deadlines chill democracy.”

“Republicans and Democrats make certain that third party candidates are held to ballot access laws, no matter how absurd or unreasonable,” says Verney. “Therefore, Republicans and Democrats should be held to the same standards.”

In reality, I’m sure that some way will be found to get Obama and McCain on the ballot in Texas, either by court order or special legislative action. When that happens, though, it will give the Barr campaign a nice piece of ammunition to use as it fights off efforts to remove Barr from the ballot in states like Pennsylvania.

Apparently, those Warner voters for McCain that I wrote about yesterday aren’t alone:

Republican John McCain’s presidential campaign today announced the Virginia Citizens for McCain, a coalition of Democrats and independents who support the Arizona senator for president.

Christy Swanson, the group’s vice chairwoman and a small business owner in Richmond, has been asked to speak at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. next week.

“John McCain has always put his country first, above himself and above politics,” said Swanson, a self-described Democrat. “He is a proven leader with the experience to lead as commander in chief from day one. John McCain’s economic policies show an inherent understanding of the needs of small business owners nationwide. His ‘all of the above’ approach to the energy crisis is exactly what we need to obtain energy security. I will proudly campaign, and cast my vote, for John McCain.”

The group’s chairman, Rick Gray, served as secretary of the Commonwealth under former governor John Dalton and has actively campaigned for Democrats, including former presidential candidate Howard Dean.

It’s things like this that are making me think that it’s going to be harder for Obama to capture Virginia this year than I previously thought.

First there’s this from Townhall.com:

Overheard:  Pawlenty, Romney or Lieberman.  Noon on Friday.

Then, there’s this from Stephen Bainbridge:

There’s a rumor floating around my little corner of the vast right-wing conspiracy that John McCain has cut his VP candidates down to Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and FedEx CEO Fred Smith. Boy would the latter be an out of the box choice.

There’s also a rumor about Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who will probably turn out to be the Chet Edwards of this version of Veepstakes.

And Jonathan Martin reports that Joe Lieberman’s supporters are strongly denying a report by Bob Novak that Lieberman warned McCain against picking him:

A report out today that Joe Lieberman warned John McCain against selecting him to be on the GOP ticket is “totally and absolutely false,” according to a Lieberman source who contacted Politico.

Columnist Robert Novak wrote that the prospect of Lieberman on the ticket is real, but that McCain and some his top backers know it would be politically unrealistic.

“And this has been made clear to McCain by none other than Joe Lieberman himself,” writes Novak.

Not so, says a Lieberman source, stating categorically that the Connecticut senator has not contacted his Arizona colleague to say any such thing.

As I’ve reported, Lieberman is very much being considered by McCain.  And it’s an indication of how much backers of the independent-turned-Democrat want the No. 2 slot that they would push back so hard against Novak’s report.

Maybe this Lieberman thing isn’t the pundit’s fantasy that I thought it was.

With the Democratic convention half over, and little more than twenty-four hours before Barack Obama accepts the nomination of his party behind a faux Greek temple backdrop, there’s scant evidence that the race has changed all that much from where it was before the Democratic National Convention started.

First, Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll shows McCain gaining on Obama yet again:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote for the second straight day. When “leaners” are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 46%

This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month

These numbers show a slight up-tic in McCain’s favor since yesterday but, for the most part, the race remains the same as it has been for months.
On the Gallup side, Barack Obama has taken a slight, albeit statistically insignificant lead:

PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday shows a race that is still close, with Barack Obama at 45% and John McCain at 44% among registered voters.

The latest three-day average (Aug. 24-26) shows Obama back with a very slight advantage after McCain edged ahead in Tuesday’s update. Despite these minor changes, the race, from a big picture perspective, has not changed and remains statistically tied — as it has for about two weeks now. A better night for Obama in Gallup’s Tuesday tracking interviews, however, suggests that a convention bounce could develop. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Certainly, the presidential election is now in the beginning phase of an extraordinarily busy stretch with the Democratic vice presidential nomination last weekend, the Democratic National Convention dominating news coverage this week, and then the pending announcement of John McCain’s vice presidential choice, plus the GOP convention next week. Changes in voter sentiment would not be at all unusual given the high-intensity flow of information into voters’ brains.

So far, however, there has been little major change in the structure of the race.

Gallup does note, however, that the more recent poll results do show what could be the beginnings of a convention bounce, although the unique scheduling of this year’s conventions suggest it might not last:

[I]nterviewing by Gallup on Tuesday night showed a stronger Obama performance, which could augur the beginnings of a bounce for Obama, as is evident more often than not immediately after a candidate’s convention. Gallup’s official “post-convention bounce” reading on Obama’s support will be based on interviewing conducted Friday through Sunday. However, with the McCain campaign hinting that it will attempt to dampen an Obama bounce with a quick announcement of the Republican vice presidential nominee on Friday, any effect from the Democratic convention may be short-lived.

So far, then, there is no Biden bounce, and any convention bounce that Obama receives at this point is likely to be muted by the impact of John McCain’s announcement of his running mate on Friday and the Republican National Convention.

But the lack of a significant poll bounce is not the only thing that Obama needs to worry about, Gallup also notes that he is losing support from a significant portion of his own party:

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama has been struggling to maintain his Democratic base thus far in August, and according to weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, the problem seems to be with conservative Democrats.

Within the Democratic Party, Obama’s losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.

As a result of this, support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama’s support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.

The 78% of Democrats backing Obama from Aug. 18-24 ties for the lowest seen since early June. The 7% of Republicans for Obama is the lowest to date (since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the Obama-McCain race in March).

And, perhaps most surprisingly of all, Barack Obama is having more trouble attracting Democrats than John McCain is in attracting Republicans:

John McCain is pulling in more support from Republicans (87%) than Barack Obama is getting from Democrats (78%).

It seems fairly obvious that Obama is having problems with the base of his party and, until he remedies that, he’s not going to be able to put any distance between himself and John McCain.

The Post’s Tim Craig is reporting that Clinton adviser Terry McAuliffe is walking around Denver and talking about running for Governor of Virginia next year:

DENVER-Terry McAuliffe, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and a key adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY.) is considering running for governor of Virginia next year.

McAuliffe spoke to the Virginia delegation at the Democratic National Convention this morning. After his speech in support of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), McAuliffe distributed free copies of his latest book. He then spent nearly an hour signing autographs and chatting with the delegates.

Rumors that McAuliffe is interested in being governor of Virginia have been percolating around the convention all week. In an interview with reporters after his speech, McAuliffe did little to dampen speculation that he was considering entering next year’s race for the Democratic nomination.

“I’m focused on this election, I am going full time for Senator Obama,” said McAuliffe, who lives in McLean. “But I never rule anything out. …Everyday is a new opportunity. I would like to be Pope if I could.”

Unfortunately, for McAuliffe, Benedict XVI is frustrating his plans to ascend to the Papacy, and there are two Democrats already running for Governor:

Del. Brian J. Moran (D-Alexandria) and Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) are the only announced candidates in the 2009 race for the Democratic nomination for governor.

When asked if he would jump into the governors race even though Deeds and Moran are already campaigning for the job, McAuliffe said, “I don’t rule anything out, we will see where we go.”

“I was a kid who grew up in Syracuse, I started my first business when I was 14, got lucky, started a couple companies and basically retired at a young age,” McAuliffe added. “I’ve spent the last 15 years as basically a full-time volunteer for the Democratic Party. I love its ideals…I never take anything off the table.”

Mo Elleithee, a Virginia-based Democratic consultant, said McAuliffe could “certainly shake things up” next year if he decided to run for governor.

“I think Terry McAuliffe is a dynamic and exciting figure,” Elleithee said. “I think he has the potential to be a very strong and formidable statewide candidate.”

More to come, I’m sure.

When Barack Obama speaks at Invesco Field on Thursday night, the backdrop will be more reminiscient of ancient Athens than the Mountain West:

DENVER (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s big speech on Thursday night will be delivered from an elaborate columned stage resembling a miniature Greek temple.

The stage, similar to structures used for rock concerts, has been set up at the 50-yard-line, the midpoint of Invesco Field, the stadium where the Denver Broncos’ National Football League team plays.

Some 80,000 supporters will see Obama appear from between plywood columns painted off-white, reminiscent of Washington’s Capitol building or even the White House, to accept the party’s nomination for president.

He will stride out to a raised platform to a podium that can be raised from beneath the floor.

After which, no doubt, he’ll perform a few miracles before flying off to Mt. Olympus.

Bob Barr appeared on Stephen Colbert’s show last night, here’s the video:

And, this morning, he appeared on CNN’s American Morning:

I’ll say this much for Barr. He is running a smart, much more media savvy campaign than any Libertarian Party Presidential candidate before him. For that reason alone, I think that the odds are fairly good that he will go a long way toward accomplishing the goals that Reason’s David Weigel laid out in this article:

The challenge for Barr and the reformers is to deliver on their promises: to score a record vote total, to grow the party’s membership, and to force the two big parties to pay attention. They need to prove that libertarians can do more than form a protest bloc in the GOP or think-tank their way into the mainstream of politics and policy. If they pull that off, the Libertarian Party could reach unprecedented heights.

So far, I’d say it’s looking good.

The McCain Campaign is out with a new ad that continues with the message regarding Barack Obama’s lack of experience:

Quite obviously, they think this message is working. And, they appear to be right.

Less than a month after being indicted in a corruption probe, Alaska Senator Ted Stevens won the Republican primary and will head to the General Election:

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska won the Republican primary in his home state on Tuesday, soundly defeating six Republican challengers less than a month after he was indicted by a federal grand jury for concealing more than $250,000 in gifts from an oil services company.

The victory for Mr. Stevens, 84, means he now moves to a tough general election campaign against Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage, who easily won the Democratic primary on Tuesday and leads the senator in polls. Mr. Stevens enters the general election also having to prepare for his trial, which is scheduled to begin in late September.

Mr. Stevens, who has been in office for 40 years and is revered for bringing home billions of dollars in federal spending, had received 63 percent of the vote with 61 percent of precincts counted.

“People have been voting for Ted for 40 years and their inclination is to keep doing it,” Dave Cuddy, a former state lawmaker who finished a distant second to Mr. Stevens, said in a phone interview several hours before the polls closed.

Which just reinforces my general opinion that voters are often quite stupid.